12. The Spectral Hound 1978 – Present

A Study in Infra-Red

Part twelve – The Spectral Hound

1978 - Present

 

Thermal Signature

From 1980 we observed an unprecedented break in the correlation between sunspot numbers and global temperatures as, despite the sun winding down, global temperatures have been going up.

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/scl_vs_temp.gif

Solar cycle length (red) vs Northern Hemisphere temperature (blue) (Stauning 2011).

 

As we trace the footsteps left behind in the atmosphere, we can see that, during the period of the unpredented warming, the heat signature is primarily a Northern hemisphere and particularly, an Arctic circle phenomenon.

 

Fig 1: Global map

 

 

 

 

Fig 2: Zonal averages map

 

 

This NASA GISS map and graph above show the trend in temperatures annually (Jan-Dec) from the period 1980 - 2014.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seeds of No Doubt

In parts 6-9 we looked at evidence for climate warming modification by means of cirrus cloud overseeding. 

  • Correlations have been established between aircraft emissions and a global increase in cirrus clouds that could account for around 8% over 4 decades since the 70’s, resulting in a global forcing of 1.6 W m2. The forcing from this increase in coverage, rivals that resulting from the increase in CO2 over the same period.

  • Intentions on the part of international scientists back in the 60’s and 70’s to utilize this effect in order to alter the climate are apparent from the literature of such individuals as W. Murcray and J.O. Fletcher.

  • The commercial airline industry, operating at precisely the altitudes where cirrus form, has been used as the delivery mechanism. To supplement these jets, drones have been used. In fact, modern commercial jet planes can be controlled remotely to the extent that one with no pilot and empty of passengers, is basically a drone. If this were to be a clandestine operation, then using commercial jets would be the most effective way of concealment – in plane sight. 

  • More visible indications that this is an orchestrated and clandestine campaign include:

  • Trails that exhibit curiously shaped flight paths that circle around and seem to have no fixed destination. This would be to concentrate the number of aerosols and maximize coverage in order to supplement and fine tune the coverage already caused by commercial air traffic. 

  • Aircraft of non-commercial or military origin such as Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS)  leaving behind such trails that cause a warming 5000 times greater (in W m2 km1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire fleet.

  • We have observed warming primarily in the northern hemisphere and particularly, the Arctic and throughout the troposphere and a cooling of the stratosphere.

  • We have seen dry regions getting drier as the innumerable aerosols locked up the sparse amount of water, not reaching precipitation size for long periods until finally, they come down in the form of deluges so that wet regions have become wetter. The precipitation cycle has been distorted.

  • Cloud feedback occurs when more water vapour leads to more clouds in the atmosphere. Low clouds which have an overall cooling influence are a negative feedback. High clouds which have an overall warming influence are a positive feedback.

  • Low clouds, which would be a negative feedback, have decreased globally on average.

  • High clouds, which are a positive feedback, have increased globally on average.

  • This shift from lower to higher clouds having had an overall warming influence comparable to that induced by CO2, may be in part a feedback response to rising temperatures affecting the altitude at which clouds form but there also may be a correlation between an increasing quantity of aerosols at upper levels leading to more high clouds and a decreasing quantity of aerosols at lower levels leading to fewer low clouds.

  • This aerosol fingerprint is observed in the record of upper atmospheric humidity, revealing a decline, counter to a CO2 induced warming but in line with aerosol induced cirrus cloud formation entraining water from the surrounding atmosphere.

  • The warming due to this cloud configuration also adds to the positive water vapour and cloud feedback with the difference being that, provided enough aerosols are present and continually replenished, the negative feedback of precipitation is impeded resulting in a lack of rainfall, amplifying and pro-longing the cycle.

  • This would make (phil)anthropogenically induced clouds a forcing in addition to a feedback.

  • Soot and sulphates, the usual suspects for contrail formation, although abundant in the atmosphere, have been found to be relatively insignificant contributors to cirrus cloud formation.

  • Two specific kinds of ice nuclei, those from mineral dust and metallic particles are favoured, constituting the nuclei for 61% of all cirrus clouds, despite the fact that other, less favoured aerosols, are more abundant. 

  • Metallic particles originating from the ash residue of jet fuel combustion are candidates for the aerosols of choice in contrail formation.

  • It has been established that around 7% of cirrus clouds may be formed on anthropogenic coal fly ash particles which are usually classified together with mineral dust. This figure of 7% matches well with the 8% increase in cirrus cloud cover over 4 decades correlated with air traffic.

  • Lead, among the most common ice nucleating agents found in cirrus clouds, is still used in light aviation fuel in the form of Tetraethyl lead (TEL). It is not officially used in commercial jet fuel but has been detected in jet exhaust particulates.

  • Lead is also a common component of coal fly ash.

  • The correlation between air traffic and the 8% rise in cirrus cloud cover taken together with the 7% of cirrus clouds formed on coal fly ash, including lead, the most effective candidate for cloud seeding but not used officially in commercial jet fuel, suggests that fly ash may be the aerosol of choice for deliberate deployment.

  • This is further supported by the correlation between regulation of coal fly ash emissions and the reduction in lower cloud cover taken together with the increase in upper cirrus cloud cover matched with coal fly ash particulates. 

  • This suggests that fly ash has been removed from the lower atmosphere and emplaced in the upper atmosphere for the purposes of warming the climate.

  • The constituents of Coal Fly Ash have been shown to match in perfect proportion with the elements found in rain water and air samples that are correlated with persistent trailing occurring 3-4 days beforehand.

  • In addition to rain water and air, these fingerprints have also been found in surface water, snow, and soil.

  • The California Air Resources Board seems to have attempted to cover up the increase in Aluminium and Barium levels in the air.

  • Coal Fly Ash found during periods correlated with persistent trailing, in regions far away from coal-fired plants, and in the upper atmosphere when ground emissions have supposedly been reduced significantly, cannot be explained except by emplacement by means of aircraft.

  • This is reinforced by the fact that sulphates, also produced from coal combustion, are not showing up in the tests in the West.

  • Coal Fly Ash is the most likely candidate for the aerosol of choice for a clandestine climate modification campaign.

 

The Polar Express

The heat that builds up in this fashion finds its way eventually to the poles by means of the atmospheric convection cells: 

 

Expanding tropics pushing high altitude clouds towards poles, NASA study finds

 

It also travels by means of the major ocean currents. We have seen that 90% of warming goes into the giant heat sink that is the ocean and is transferred to the Arctic where it accelerates the melting of the under-ice surface.

 

global heat content

 

http://www.eu-thor.eu/uploads/pics/54bec0c265.gif

 

Thermohaline Overturning – at Risk

 

Arctic Avarice 

 

Recall the words of Fletcher in 1969:

 

It has for example been noted that the creation or dissipation of high cloudiness has an enormous influence on the heat budget of the atmosphere and of the surface. It is estimated that it would take only sixty C-5 aircraft to deliver 1kg per km2 per day over the entire Arctic Basin (10 to the 7 km2). Thus, it is a large but not impossible task to seed such enormous areas. Emphasis mine

These numbers demonstrate not only the enormous thermal leverage that might be exercised by influencing mean cloudiness, but also the range of influence that might be possible, depending on cloud type, height, and its influence on the regional heat budget. This conclusion is further underscored by noting that mean monthly values of radiative heat loss at the surface have been observed to vary by more than 100% in different years at some Arctic stations possibly due to variations in cloudiness." Emphasis mine

Managing Climatic Resources

 

 

Eastman and Warren have shown an increase in cloud cover over the Arctic:

 

Significant trends are present in Arctic cloudiness over the ocean and land. The trends are not uniform over the Arctic, but large regions displaying similar trends are common. Arctic clouds are changing differently over the land and ocean, but overall the trend from 1971 through 2007 shows a slight increase in total cloud cover during all seasons. Emphasis mine

 

This has enhanced the warming of the Arctic:

 

“Overall, relationships between ice, temperature, and clouds indicate that cloud changes

in recent decades may enhance the warming of the Arctic and may be acting to accelerate the decline of Arctic sea ice. Emphasis mine

Eastman and Warren eliminate sulphates as culprits for the increasing trend:

“Correlations with temperature and sea ice extent are strongest during spring and autumn when the cloud longwave effect dominates. It is shown that low clouds have a strong positive relationship with temperature during these seasons. However, the trend of Arctic aerosols has gone in the opposite direction, as Quinn et al. (2007) have observed with the decreasing sulfate aerosols since the mid-1990s at surface stations in the Arctic. Emphasis mine

Interannual Variations of Arctic Cloud Types in Relation to Sea Ice

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time series of seasonally averaged cloud fraction

Time series of seasonally averaged cloud fraction over the arctic seas in spring (March, April, May). Provided by Axel J. Schweiger.

 

spatial distribution of trend in cloud cover

 

Spatial distribution of trends in cloud cover over twenty years. Provided by Axel J. Schweiger.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whilst cloud cover has increased, Arctic ice has declined, slightly from 1980 and drastically since 1996.

http://www.marinet.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Debate-on-Arctic-sea.jpg

PIOMAS model Arctic sea ice volume for autumn 1980–2014 (solid line) and spring 1981–2014 (dashed line). CryoSat-2 volume estimates (red stars) are plotted for 2010–2014.

Source: Nature Geoscience; Tilling et al. (2015).


It is clear from the NASA GISS map and graph below that the period from 1980 to 1996, when the Arctic ice had not begun its drastic downward decline, is marked by an extreme temperature increase in the Arctic circle around 66° to 90°N and also the mid-latitudes, relative to the equator and the Antarctic.

Fig 1: Global map

 

 

In other words, the sharp reduction in temperature gradient is already present and so cannot have been initiated by the Arctic albedo loss although this feedback has later amplified it, as revealed by the NASA GISS map and graph for the period 1996-2015.

 

Fig 1: Global map