05. The Dog in the Night-time

A Study in Infra-Red

Part five – The Dog in the Night-time


"Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"

 “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."

  "The dog did nothing in the night-time."

  "That was the curious incident," remarked Sherlock Holmes.


Much was made in the media when it surfaced that one of the major arms of Big Oil, ExxonMobil, had known about climate change and the role of fossil fuels in bringing it about, as far back as 1970 whilst funding the denial of such a role until at least 2007.

ExxonMobil under investigation over claims it lied about climate change risks


Eyebrows would be raised much higher if it were to be disclosed just how much, during the same period – the 70’s, and further back, prominent scientists, government agencies and the banking and industrial oligarchs that owned them, were interested in raising global temperatures by means of such schemes as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers and altering cloud formation in order to ward off a supposed ice age, and of course, profit immeasurably. 


In 1975, Newsweek published an article, in which the following was written:


Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.” Emphasis mine

1970s Global Cooling Scare


Numbered among these prominent scientists was John Holdren, the lead scientific advisor to Obama.

Today, Dr Holdren has suggested emplacing pollution particles (most likely sulphates rather than black carbon) into the upper atmosphere as a means of cooling the planet by reflecting the sun’s rays. 


Many of these theories of a coming mini-ice age were based on the solar cycle and its correlation with global temperatures. The sun was due for a moderate overall winding down phase which would lead to an associated moderate overall cooling.


However, despite this winding down, from 1980, global temperatures have been going up and the sunspot correlation has been broken.



Solar cycle length (red) vs Northern Hemisphere temperature (blue) (Stauning 2011).


A question now needs to be asked.


What if the scientists were right about the oncoming mini-ice age and actually prevented it by means of an undisclosed geoengineering program?


In order to answer this, we should first look for evidence of an intent to bring about a global warming and melting of Arctic ice.


Carbon Black Climate Modification


In 1972, a paper was written by Dr William Gray on the use of carbon dust (soot) for the purposes of weather modification. Following the controlled incomplete combustion of fossil fuels to generate particles of less than 0.1 microns in diameter, this method proposed utilising trapped solar radiation to produce heat convection to the surrounding air molecules. 


This would be applied for numerous purposes, including 


a. Rainfall enhancement along tropical and sub-tropical coastlines.

b. Reduction of inner-core hurricane intensity.

c. Cumulonimbus enhancement over selective land regions in need of


d. Alteration of extra-tropical cyclones.

e. Fog dissipation.

f. Accelerating snowmelt in agricultural areas. (p27)


Purposes c and f particularly pertain to this study for obvious reasons. They could clearly have been applied to Arctic warming. This would involve ground based generators dispensing black carbon into the boundary layer just above the ice. The particles would absorb both incoming solar radiation and that reflected by the snow and warm the air just above the ice by means of convection.

Weather Modification by Carbon Dust Absorption of Solar Energy


If a deliberate, yet viable and clandestine attempt to melt the warm the Arctic was being made in alignment with Gray’s proposals, then black carbon would have been emplaced by means of ground based generators dispensing the particles in the boundary layer above the ice. The particles would then fall onto the surface. The Arctic ocean, when frozen and during its annual thaw, would also receive this treatment.


Gray studied the carbon dust smoke plumes generated by carbon black plants and petroleum fires and found them to be typical of the type of carbon plume which would be used for weather modification. 

Recall from part 2 where it was established that soot emitted inside the Arctic circle may account for a significant portion of the uneven warming occurring in that region.


“So it’s not just a warming climate that’s beating back the ice floes; it’s the soot generated from myriad industrial operations in the region. Of course, as the ice melts, more and more of those industries will set up shop in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, etc, and spew more and more soot onto the embattled ice.”

The burden of black carbon that is contributing to Arctic ice melt is provided by Big Oil.


Perhaps Gray’s ground based dispensers are in place in the form of flare stacks contributing their carbon dust plumes in the Arctic to a degree around 20 times greater than anywhere else in the world in a region that is 5 times more sensitive.














Cloud Seeding for Climate Modification


In this paper written in 1969 by J.O. Fletcher for the Rand Corporation, Fletcher discusses modification of cloud cover over the North Polar Basin by Cloud Seeding. The intent of such an operation is quite clearly for causing a warming to melt the Arctic ice. 

Managing Climatic Resources

Let us examine excerpts from the paper that are pertinent to this study.


"Still another form of growing pollution, and one whose possible effects have received little study, is the creation of cirrus cloudiness (vapour trails) by the exhaust products of high-flying aircraft.

Increases in cloudiness of any form tends to increase the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth and, according to Bryson’s calculations, a 1% increase in mean albedo would cool the Earth by 1.6OC. However, it should be noted that increased cloudiness at high levels greatly reduces radiative loss to space, and this would have a warming effect on the Earth. Thus, the dual effects of more or less cloudiness are great, but the direction of the net influence depends on the type and height of the clouds, and whether they are in a dark or sunlit region of the Earth."

"Possibilities for Purposeful Influence on Global Climate

It has for example been noted that the creation or dissipation of high cloudiness has an enormous influence on the heat budget of the atmosphere and of the surface. It is estimated that it would take only sixty C-5 aircraft to deliver 1kg per km2 per day over the entire Arctic Basin (10 to the 7 km2). Thus, it is a large but not impossible task to seed such enormous areas.

Assuming that such seeding were effective in creating or dissipating clouds, it is of interest to estimate the effect of such cloud modification on the heat budget of the surface/atmosphere system. It is estimated that the presence of average cloudiness over the Arctic in July decreases the radiative heat loss to space by about 350 billion cal/km2/day from what it would be without clouds. By comparison, total cloud at 500 meters would decrease radiative heat loss by only 500 billion cal/km2 per day, while “total cloud at 5000 meters would decrease radiative loss by about 1000 billion cal/km2/per day.

"These numbers demonstrate not only the enormous thermal leverage that might be exercised by influencing mean cloudiness, but also the range of influence that might be possible, depending on cloud type, height, and its influence on the regional heat budget. This conclusion is further underscored by noting that mean monthly values of radiative heat loss at the surface have been observed to vary by more than 100% in different years at some Arctic stations possibly due to variations in cloudiness."


Clearly, the use of aircraft to seed clouds, the higher the more effective, as a means to warm the underlying atmosphere and surface was seriously considered at least as far back as 1969.


"Ice free Arctic Ocean

The largest scale enterprise that has been discussed is that of transforming the Arctic into an ice-free ocean. As was noted earlier, this has been carefully studied by the staff of the Main Geophysical Observatory in Leningrad. The central question is the stability of the ensuing global climatic regime. This question cannot be adequately evaluated until global climate simulation models are better developed and suitable simulations performed.

There is also a certain amount of uncertainty in regard to the engineering feasibility of removing the Arctic pack ice. It is possible that the capacity of the present technology may be sufficient to accomplish this task, but this has not been established. 

Three basic approaches have been proposed ( Fletcher, 1965): (1) influencing the surface reflectivity of the ice to cause more absorption of solar heat; (2) large-scale modification of Arctic cloud conditions by seeding; (3) increasing the inflow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean."

"International Cooperation

The management of global climatic resources is a problem shared by all nations. So far, international efforts in climatic research have been directed toward observation and understanding , and cooperation has been good. It is a challenge to political and scientific leadership to preserve this spirit of cooperation as further progress is achieved toward prediction and control." Emphasis mine.


North American, European and Russian political and scientific leadership along with their corporate oligarch overlords, were talking of an international cooperation to render the Arctic 

Ocean ice free.


Indications that this project became a reality are alluded to in another paper written in 1970 by Wallace Murcray. 

On The Possibility Of Weather Modification By Aircraft Contrails


He observed that contrails were becoming more frequent and might have an effect on the underlying heat economy. He even linked this observation to projects for modifying the climate discussed by scientists such as Fletcher in the 60s and speculated that they were already underway.

“The writer himself has seen instances in which a single contrail seemed to grow until it became an overcast covering the whole sky. If the contrail were indeed responsible, which is by no means certain, this would constitute definite proof that contrails are capable of a significant effect on local weather, and even possibly on global climate, if such occurrences are widespread and frequent.
“The possible consequences of this are considerable, in fact, it seems probable that one of the projects for 
modifying the global climate discussed by Fletcher (1965), namely modification of the cloud cover over the polar basin by cloud seeding, is already underway, although the scale is still more modest than he envisioned.”


If all this sounds familiar, it’s because it is. 

Modification of cloud cover by means of aircraft dispensing aerosols which cause artificial cirrus clouds to blanket the sky is a topic that more and more people are becoming aware of. 

We know what they are referring to.

Those ubiquitous trails that expand and blot out our skies from horizon to horizon.


What is a contrail?

According to NASA,

“Contrails are clouds formed when water vapor condenses and freezes around small particles (aerosols) that exist in aircraft exhaust.”

Some of that water vapor comes from the air around the plane; and, some is added by the exhaust of the aircraft.”

Contrails are artificially induced cirrus clouds. Like cirrus clouds they form from ice nucleating on small particles at around 10km, cruise altitude. These particles play an essential role in contrail formation. 

Contrail Science

Prominent atmospheric scientist, Jasper Kirkby, in a talk given at CERN confirms that:

  • Every cloud droplet has a seed inside called a Cloud Condensation Nucleus (CCN).

  • The more CCN, the more water required for droplets to reach precipitation size, and the longer the cloud persists.

  • Large regions of the atmosphere lack sufficient aerosols to form clouds.

  • Contrails and ship tracks are actually clouds seeded by aerosols.


“Contrails are a well-known example of that, these are not smoke trails, these are clouds which are seeded by jets dumping aerosols into the upper atmosphere. Emphasis mine

Recall from part 3 that cirrus clouds, occurring above 18,000 feet, cover about 35% of the planet. These clouds have an overall net warming effect, they trap more Infrared radiation than the Solar radiation they reflect out to space. 



Summary and Conclusions

We have looked at two major forms of climate modification proposed in the period before the onset of global warming, as a means to melt the Arctic, warm the climate and avert a mini-ice age.

Carbon Black Climate Modification

  • Black Carbon (soot) deposited south of 71° N, yet within the Arctic circle most likely by means of gas flaring, from industrial plants and offshore oil and gas rigs, contributes 42% of emissions in a region that is 5 times more sensitive than anywhere else in the world and to a degree around 20 times greater.

  • This is in alignment with William Gray’s proposals for ground based dispensers of black carbon plumes for the purpose of snow/ice melting and enhancement of lower cloud convection. Gray modelled his ideas on actual carbon dust smoke plumes generated by carbon black plants and petroleum fires.

  • As offshore oil gas rigs increase in number and encroach further north, levels of black carbon will only increase.

Cloud Seeding for Climate Modification

  • In 1970, Wallace Murcray observed that contrails were becoming more frequent and might have an effect on the underlying heat economy. He even linked this observation to projects for modifying the climate discussed by scientists such as Fletcher in the 1965 and speculated that they were underway.

  • Contrails are artificially induced cirrus clouds. Like cirrus clouds they form from ice nucleating on small particles at around 10km, cruise altitude. These particles play an essential role in contrail formation. 

  • Contrails, being cirrus clouds, have a net-warming effect.

In part 6 we shall investigate further into the phenomena of these artificial cirrus clouds, their impact on the climate and the possibility of their link to an undisclosed, clandestine campaign to melt the Arctic and warm the earth.